参考
How to hunt for 100-baggers, an investment check-list 如何寻找百倍股，一份投资清单
https://www.atmosinvest.com/p/how-to-hunt-for-100-baggers-an-investment
KEVIN 凯文
SEP 08, 2023 9月 08， 2023
One of my favorite books on investing is 100-baggers by Christopher Mayer. The idea of finding them is of course exciting, but most importantly, there are lessons in there that can help our investment strategy.
我最喜欢的一本关于投资的书是克里斯托弗·梅耶尔（Christopher Mayer）的《100-baggers》。找到它们的想法当然令人兴奋，但最重要的是，其中有一些经验教训可以帮助我们的投资策略。
Every investor should have an investment checklist and more importantly, stick to it (which is not easy).
每个投资者都应该有一个投资清单，更重要的是，坚持下去（这并不容易）。
We’re bombarded every day with multiple ideas and “the next best thing”. It’s essential to be able to say NO to almost all of them until you come across one that deserves your YES. I think a checklist is highly personal. The list needs to suit your temperament and investment philosophy.
我们每天都受到多种想法和“下一个最好的事情”的轰炸。必须能够对几乎所有的人说“不”，直到你遇到一个值得你说“是”的人。我认为清单是高度个人化的。这份清单需要适合你的气质和投资理念。
Let’s take a look at the checklist based on this great book and add some additional insights based on my own experiences.
让我们看一下基于这本好书的清单，并根据我自己的经验添加一些额外的见解。
Short Summary of 100-baggers
100-baggers的简短摘要
100-baggers is based on an older book named 100 to 1 in the stock market. “A Distinguished Security Analyst Tells How to Make More of Your Investment Opportunities” by Thomas William Phelps. I like the title of this old book.
100-baggers 基于一本名为 100 比 1 的旧书 在股票市场。托马斯·威廉·菲尔普斯（Thomas William Phelps）的“一位杰出的证券分析师讲述了如何利用更多的投资机会”。我喜欢这本旧书的书名。
The “Distinguished” gives it some flair.
“杰出”赋予了它一些天赋。
Both authors use a dataset to do their analysis:
两位作者都使用数据集进行分析：
100 to 1: 1932 to 1971 US stock market
100 比 1：1932 年至 1971 年美国股市
100-baggers: 1962 to 2014 US stock market
100-baggers：1962 年至 2014 年美国股市
It is not a statistical analysis because there is significant survivorship bias. The goal is to look for traits in the different companies that can explain why they outperformed the market.
它不是统计分析，因为存在显着的幸存者偏差。目标是寻找不同公司的特征，这些特征可以解释为什么它们的表现优于市场。
The main lesson from both books is this:
这两本书的主要教训是：
Buy right 正确购买
Hold on (longer than you think)
坚持（比你想象的要长）
That’s probably the shortest summary ever of an investing book!
这可能是一本投资书籍中最短的摘要！
How to buy right will be discussed further when we look at the 100-bagger investment checklist.
当我们查看 100 袋投资清单时，将进一步讨论如何正确购买。
Holding on refers to the power of compounding.
坚持是指复利的力量。
Our favorite holding period is forever (Warren Buffet)
我们最喜欢的持有期是永远（沃伦·巴菲特）
Time in the market is more important than timing the market (Ken Fisher)
市场时间比市场时机更重要（Ken Fisher）
Business life cycles are shortening. Instead of holding on for 30+ years maybe you could hold on for 10-15 years. Is 10 years a long time to hold on to a stock?
企业生命周期正在缩短。与其坚持 30+ 年，也许你可以坚持 10-15 年。持有一只股票10年的时间很长吗？
It appears it is.
看来是这样。
The average US equity holding period has decreased significantly over the last decades.
在过去几十年中，美国股票的平均持有期大幅下降。
Source: A Wealth of Common Sense
来源：丰富的常识
Before diving into the 100-bagger checklist, why do you need a checklist in the first place?
在深入研究 100 袋清单之前，为什么首先需要一份清单？
Why do you need an investment checklist?
为什么需要投资清单？
You can view the market as having lots of buyers and sellers. As an investor, your edge toward a fellow investor can be described in three parts (source: Nomad Partnership letters):
您可以将市场视为有很多买家和卖家。作为投资者，你对其他投资者的优势可以用三个部分来描述（来源：Nomad Partnership letters）：
Informational edge: You have more information or more knowledge on a specific company or business than anyone
信息优势：您比任何人都拥有更多关于特定公司或业务的信息或知识
Processing edge: Your process or the way you handle this information is faster or superior to what others are doing
处理优势：您的流程或处理此信息的方式比其他人更快或更优于其他人正在做的事情
Temperamental edge: You are non-emotional, make rational decisions, and know that investing is a relative game of probabilities. You stick to a clear investment strategy.
脾气暴躁：你不情绪化，做出理性的决定，并且知道投资是一种相对的概率游戏。您坚持明确的投资策略。
Let’s discuss these 3 traits in more detail and make the link to finding 100-baggers:
让我们更详细地讨论这 3 个特征，并链接到寻找 100 个装袋机：
Maybe you work at a company and you indeed know the business better than 99% of other investors out there. This gives you an edge, but beware of company bias! If you’re retrieving information about any other company, there are a plethora of resources available. The gap between the information a retail investor has and a professional investor is closing each year.
也许你在一家公司工作，你确实比 99% 的其他投资者更了解这项业务。这给你带来了优势，但要小心公司的偏见！如果您要检索有关任何其他公司的信息，则有大量可用资源。散户投资者和专业投资者之间的信息差距每年都在缩小。
You could argue that professional investors have the means to use services like Capital IQ to get financial data or services like inpractise.com to do expert interviews. They can also go in the trenches, to the company, meet with the management team, and do in-depth research.
您可能会争辩说，专业投资者可以使用 Capital IQ 等服务来获取财务数据，或者使用 inpractise.com 等服务进行专家访谈。他们也可以走进战壕，到公司，与管理团队会面，做深入的研究。
In the end, the edge you might have versus someone else is not significant.
最后，与其他人相比，您可能拥有的优势并不重要。
Maybe it’s the way you process the information. Maybe you developed some sort of magic formula? Putting aside algorithmic trading (the Medallion fund, a 66% CAGR by Jim Simons), if you know the language of business (accounting), and you’ve learned how to define the value of a company, you will not have a significant edge based on your process alone.
也许这是你处理信息的方式。也许你开发了某种神奇的公式？撇开算法交易（奖章基金，吉姆·西蒙斯 （Jim Simons） 的复合年增长率为 66%），如果您了解商业语言（会计），并且已经学会了如何定义公司的价值，那么仅凭您的流程，您就不会有显着的优势。
This doesn’t mean this isn’t an important step and it requires continuous learning. There is a connection between temperament and process and it is called an investment strategy.
这并不意味着这不是重要的一步，它需要不断学习。气质和过程之间存在联系，这被称为投资策略。
On average, investors only hold for short periods. This means on average, in the best case, they take their winnings off the table pretty quickly. The magic of compounding, the 8th world wonder, has not taken effect yet. Because on average, prices for a company fluctuate about 50% around their mean value, your winnings are based on the movement of the market. The company itself, within a year, hasn’t changed that much. Compared to information and process, this is the main characteristic where you can gain a significant edge over most of the other investors. Time is your friend. How can you implement this 3rd part, and gain an edge? By holding on.
平均而言，投资者只持有短期。这意味着平均而言，在最好的情况下，他们很快就会将奖金从桌子上拿走。复利的魔力，第八大世界奇迹，还没有生效。因为平均而言，一家公司的价格在其平均价值附近波动约 50%，因此您的奖金取决于市场的走势。公司本身在一年内并没有太大变化。与信息和流程相比，这是您可以比大多数其他投资者获得显着优势的主要特征。时间是你的朋友。如何实现这第三部分，并获得优势？坚持下去。
100-baggers talks about picking the right company, and this you do by using information and processes. Then it says to hold on for dear life. To remove emotion from the equation, an investment checklist (process) can help you hold on and let the compound do its work.
100-baggers 谈到了选择合适的公司，而这可以通过使用信息和流程来实现。然后它说要为亲爱的生命坚持下去。为了消除等式中的情绪，投资清单（过程）可以帮助您坚持下去，让化合物发挥作用。
The 100-bagger investment checklist
100 袋投资清单
In the following paragraphs, numerical thresholds are mentioned. These are the ones I use, it is up to you to define your own.
在以下段落中，提到了数字阈值。这些是我使用的，由您自己定义。
It’s all about growth, growth and growth
这一切都与成长、成长和成长有关
For a stock price to develop 100x, the company itself needs to be able, at the minimum, to significantly increase its sales, year over year, for a very long time. Sales growth and future sales growth potential are therefore the first yardsticks.
要使股价上涨 100 倍，公司本身至少需要能够在很长一段时间内同比大幅增加销售额。因此，销售增长和未来销售增长潜力是首要标准。
The company is therefore actively looking to introduce new products and services in the same market, or expand its products and services in new markets and geographies.
因此，该公司正在积极寻求在同一市场推出新产品和服务，或在新的市场和地区扩展其产品和服务。
Ideally, the market the company is operating in is expanding. This doesn’t mean it’s impossible in a mature market, but then the company will need to take away significant market share from competitors.
理想情况下，公司经营的市场正在扩大。这并不意味着在成熟市场中是不可能的，但公司将需要从竞争对手手中夺走重要的市场份额。
When talking about growth, it’s worth taking a look at the company life cycle:
在谈论增长时，值得一看公司的生命周期：
Source: Aswath Damodaran - Business life cycle
来源：Aswath Damodaran - 业务生命周期
We can define 6 stages. Looking at sales growth percentage, the highest sales growth occurs before the inflection line, meaning from the startup stage up until somewhere within the mature growth stage. Companies in stage 1 and 2 usually are not public. This is the realm of venture capital. So is your company in stage 3 or stage 4?
我们可以定义 6 个阶段。从销售增长百分比来看，最高的销售增长发生在拐点线之前，这意味着从初创阶段到成熟增长阶段的某个地方。处于第 1 阶段和第 2 阶段的公司通常不是公开的。这就是风险投资的领域。那么，您的公司是处于第 3 阶段还是第 4 阶段？
We do not distinguish value from growth. Value equals Growth!
我们不区分价值和增长。价值等于增长！
Based on these insights, here are our thresholds:
基于这些见解，以下是我们的阈值：
In addition to these thresholds, we check if the company is actively pursuing growth in the future.
除了这些门槛之外，我们还会检查公司是否在未来积极追求增长。
High gross margin preferred
高毛利率优先
Gross margins are sticky. In other words, companies that start with low gross margins will have a hard time increasing them. Those with high gross margins have more space to breathe. High gross margins are preferred, but are not an absolute necessity (Walmart is a 100-bagger and has low gross margins)
毛利率具有粘性。换句话说，以低毛利率起步的公司将很难增加毛利率。那些毛利率高的人有更多的喘息空间。高毛利率是首选，但不是绝对必要的（沃尔玛是 100 袋，毛利率低）
Our thresholds: 我们的门槛：
High EPS growth 每股收益高增长
Growing sales and having high margins is great, but does it translate into the bottom line? Can the company grow earnings year over year? More importantly, can it grow earnings per share? This is one of the most important factors for 100-bagger stardom.
销售额增长和高利润固然很好，但这能转化为底线吗？公司能否逐年增加收益？更重要的是，它能提高每股收益吗？这是 100 袋明星的最重要因素之一。
Our thresholds: 我们的门槛：
The three criteria we just discussed are related to the performance of the company. It doesn’t talk about the efficiency of the company. We’ll take a look at two other factors, Return on Equity and Return on Invested Capital.
我们刚才讨论的三个标准与公司的业绩有关。它没有谈论公司的效率。我们将看看另外两个因素，股本回报率和投资资本回报率。
High Return on Equity 高股本回报率
A high earnings growth is a great first indicator. But earnings by themselves are not useful. What is interesting is to see how earnings grow divided by the equity value of the company. If the company is delivering high ROE year over year, you have a good chance of getting high returns.
高收益增长是一个很好的第一指标。但收入本身并没有什么用。有趣的是，看看收益如何增长除以公司的股权价值。如果公司每年都提供高 ROE，您很有可能获得高回报。
What is a high ROE?
什么是高ROE？
It is a measure of the efficiency with which a company can generate profits from its equity financing. In relative terms, you need to look at other companies in the market. If your company has a ROE of 15%, and the others in the market only have 5%, then your ROE could be considered high.
它是衡量公司从股权融资中产生利润的效率的指标。相对而言，您需要查看市场上的其他公司。如果您的公司有 15% 的 ROE，而市场上的其他公司只有 5%，那么您的 ROE 可以被认为是高的。
In absolute terms, if we want to find a 100-bagger, we need to look at the compounding effect. Here are the results after 15 and 25 years, for different ROEs.
从绝对值上讲，如果我们想找到一个 100 袋，我们需要看看复利效应。以下是 15 年和 25 年后不同 ROE 的结果。
Every time I look at a table like this, I’m always amazed at how big the difference is at the end for a percentage increase. Compounding is the 8th world wonder!
每次我看到这样的表格时，我总是惊讶于最终百分比增加的差异有多大。复利是第八大世界奇迹！
If you know of a company, compounding at 30% each year, please let me know.
如果您知道一家公司，每年的复利率为 30%，请告诉我。
If I add a ROE of 20% and a 10Y sales growth of 25% in a screener, here are some of the companies that are shown in the list:
如果我在筛选器中添加 20% 的 ROE 和 25% 的 10 年销售增长，以下是列表中显示的一些公司：
Winnebago industries (WGO):
温尼贝戈工业 （WGO）：
RV-motorhomes manufacturer
房车房车制造商
2 billion market cap -
20亿市值 -
33% ROE 33% 净资产收益率
23.9% 10Y sales CAGR 23.9% 10 年销售复合年增长率
Gravity Co. (GRVY): 重力公司 （GRVY）：
Mobile game developer and publisher
移动游戏开发商和发行商
517 million market cap 5.17亿市值
28% ROE 28% 净资产收益率
24.4% 10Y sales CAGR 24.4% 10 年期销售复合年增长率
Kelly Partners Group Holdings (KPG):
Kelly Partners Group Holdings （KPG）：
accounting group 会计组
129 million market cap 1.29亿市值
31% ROE 31% 净资产收益率
20.8% 10Y sales CAGR 20.8% 10 年销售复合年增长率
Note: The list contained a lot of energy and resources companies which is not surprising.
注：该名单包含许多能源和资源公司，这并不奇怪。
If a company displays a high ROE, it’s important to dive deeper and understand how it can do so.
如果一家公司表现出很高的 ROE，那么深入研究并了解它如何做到这一点是很重要的。
The company is increasing returns for the same equity value
该公司正在增加相同股权价值的回报
This is looking good. The high return on equity comes from its ability to increase returns.
这看起来不错。高股本回报率来自其增加回报的能力。
The company is not increasing returns but the equity value is decreasing
公司没有增加回报，但股权价值正在下降
There could be two reasons :
可能有两个原因：
They are buying back shares. These can be a good sign IF they buy back at a cheap (or maybe fair price). If a stock is priced high, and the company is buying back, it is not a good sign of a great capital allocation strategy. Advance Auto Parts is a company that was buying back shares when the company was priced between a 17 and 21 PE. The stock has come down hard in the last year, and one might argue in hindsight if they were not buying their own shares at too high a price?
他们正在回购股票。如果他们以便宜（或合理的价格）回购，这可能是一个好兆头。如果一只股票定价很高，而公司正在回购，这不是一个伟大的资本配置策略的好兆头。Advance Auto Parts 是一家回购股票的公司，当时该公司的市盈率在 17 到 21 倍之间。去年，该股大幅下跌，事后可能会争辩说，如果他们没有以太高的价格购买自己的股票？
They are increasing leverage, and thus reducing the financing part needed by equity. This is not necessarily bad but beware. Are returns increasing also? Are they taking on too much leverage? What do interest payments look like?
他们正在增加杠杆率，从而减少股权所需的融资部分。这不一定是坏事，但要小心。回报率也在增加吗？他们是否承担了太多的杠杆作用？利息支付是什么样的？
Here’s an example of a company A and B. They have the same returns, but different ROEs because of leverage.
下面是公司 A 和 B 的示例。它们具有相同的回报，但由于杠杆作用，ROE不同。
Our thresholds: 我们的门槛：
Return on invested capital
投资资本回报率
Instead of just looking at the equity part, let’s look at all of the invested capital. The goal is to dive deeper into the company’s capital allocation strategy.
与其只看股权部分，不如看一下所有的投资资本。目标是更深入地研究公司的资本配置策略。
ROIC is calculated as NOPAT/ Average Invested Capital
ROIC的计算方式为NOPAT/平均投资资本
NOPAT is the Net Operating Income after Tax
NOPAT是税后净营业收入
Invested Capital on the financing side is defined as Equity + Debt - Cash or Cash equivalents
融资方的投资资本定义为股权+债务 - 现金或现金等价物
In other words, what is the return the company is making on actual capital invested?
换句话说，公司实际投资资本的回报是多少？
Our thresholds: 我们的门槛：
Sound Capital Allocation 稳健的资本配置
The most important thing a CEO needs to do is find the best way to allocate capital. Most CEOs are not great capital allocators.
CEO需要做的最重要的事情是找到分配资本的最佳方式。大多数CEO都不是优秀的资本配置者。
So what does capital allocation even mean?
那么，资本配置到底意味着什么呢？
Cash comes in. A choice is made to spend cash to generate more cash. Here is an overview based on a great report on capital allocation written by Michael Mauboussin from Morgan Stanley :
现金进来了。选择花费现金以产生更多现金。以下是基于摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的迈克尔·莫布森（Michael Mauboussin）撰写的一份关于资本配置的精彩报告的概述：
Cash comes into your business from:
现金从以下方面进入您的业务：
Its operations 其运营
Certain assets sales (one shots)
部分资产出售（一次性）
Issuing equity 发行股票
Taking on more debt 承担更多债务
Cash can then be used to:
然后，现金可用于：
Invest to grow by spending on CAPEX
通过资本支出进行投资以实现增长
Use it as working capital to operate the business
将其用作营运资金来经营业务
Grow by acquiring other businesses
通过收购其他业务实现增长
Invest to grow by spending on R&D
通过研发支出进行投资以实现增长
Pay dividends to shareholders
向股东支付股息
Buyback shares 回购股份
Repay debt 偿还债务
For the capital allocation strategy, it’s difficult to set thresholds, but we’ll limit ourselves to this:
对于资本配置策略，很难设定阈值，但我们将仅限于此：
In short: 总之：
No: it has a history of badly allocating capital, it is destroying value
不：它有不当配置资本的历史，它正在破坏价值
Sort of: It doesn’t have a clear strategy, but at least it is not destroying value
有点：它没有明确的战略，但至少它没有破坏价值
Good: It has a strategy and value is created
好：它有策略，有价值创造
Great: Capital allocation is a top priority for management. They actively seek to create value. They talk about their strategy. They have a history of great capital allocation
太好了：资本配置是管理层的重中之重。他们积极寻求创造价值。他们谈论他们的策略。他们有大量资本配置的历史
Skin in the game 游戏中的皮肤
Quote, show me the incentives, and I’ll show you the outcome
引用，告诉我激励措施，我会告诉你结果
In order to obtain a 100-bagger, you need a long term view; It will not happen overnight.
为了获得 100 袋装机，您需要有长远的眼光;这不会在一夜之间发生。
Here’s the data used in the book for the speed at which companies arrived at 100-baggerdom out of a total of 365 companies
以下是书中使用的数据，用于在总共 365 家公司中达到 100 家公司的速度
In other words, for most of them, you had to hold them between 15 and 45 years. That is a long time, but my guess would be that if you would redo an analysis with updated data up until now, you would see a faster rate due to the internet and technology. (If you bought Nvidia in 2013, you would have a 100-bagger in 10 years)
换句话说，对于他们中的大多数人来说，你必须持有它们 15 到 45 年。这是一个很长的时间，但我的猜测是，如果你用更新的数据重新进行分析，由于互联网和技术，你会看到更快的速度。（如果你在 2013 年购买了 Nvidia，你将在 10 年内拥有 100 个袋子）
One of the ways to ensure a long term view is a business that is operator owned. When an owner or even better, the C-level team has skin in the game, they directly benefit from building long term value per share. You as an investor therefore have a better chance that your goals are aligned.
确保长期观点的方法之一是经营者拥有的企业。当所有者甚至更好的 C 级团队在游戏中拥有皮肤时，他们直接受益于建立每股长期价值。因此，作为投资者，您有更好的机会实现目标一致。
What about the rest of the employees?
其他员工呢？
A lot of companies provide stock options to their employees in their benefit package. This can add some dilution to the value, but if it allows to align interests, this dilution should be offset by long term value per share gains.
许多公司在福利计划中为员工提供股票期权。这可能会增加一些价值稀释，但如果它允许利益一致，这种稀释应该被长期每股价值收益所抵消。
So let us come up with some categories:
因此，让我们提出一些类别：
None : There is no skin in the game, employees receive short term bonuses or nothing at all
无：游戏中没有皮肤，员工获得短期奖金或根本没有奖金
Sort of: There is skin in the game but there are no known incentives used for the rest of the company
某种程度上：游戏中有皮肤，但没有已知的激励措施用于公司的其他部分
Yes: There is skin in the game and actions are taken to align the company
是：游戏中有皮肤，并采取行动来调整公司
Holy S&: There is significant skin in the game and a compensation system is put in place that benefits the long term versus the short term
Holy S&：游戏中有重要的皮肤，并且建立了一个有利于长期而不是短期的补偿制度
High long-term MOAT
Can you describe its competitive advantages? Do they have some sort of advantage they can easily defend in the long term? This category is related to the ROIC value. Both are linked together. A company with a MOAT can generate high returns on invested capital for a longer time.
您能描述一下它的竞争优势吗？从长远来看，他们是否拥有某种可以轻松捍卫的优势？此类别与 ROIC 值相关。两者都是联系在一起的。拥有护城河的公司可以在更长的时间内产生高投资资本回报。
None: The company has no apparent moat. Entry into the market is easy. They could be disrupted in the short term.
无：公司没有明显的护城河。进入市场很容易。它们可能会在短期内被打乱。
Sort of: They may have a MOAT but it may not be long-term. It could protect them in the following years, but not for a decade.
有点：他们可能有护城河，但可能不是长期的。它可以在接下来的几年里保护他们，但不会持续十年。
Yes: They have a clear competitive advantage which will hold for the coming years. It is difficult to see beyond 10 years, but they are okay for the next decade. They have monopolistic tendencies.
是的：他们具有明显的竞争优势，这种优势将在未来几年保持下去。很难看到 10 年以后的情况，但未来 10 年还可以。他们有垄断倾向。
Holy S&: The company has a very strong MOAT and it is hard to see how anyone will be able to compete. As a result, they have a sort of monopolistic or oligopolistic position in the market
Holy S&：该公司拥有非常强大的护城河，很难看出任何人将如何竞争。因此，他们在市场上具有某种垄断或寡头垄断地位
Decentralized organization preferred
去中心化组织优先
Decentralized organizations have more autonomous teams, faster decision making and overall are usually more efficient.
去中心化组织拥有更多的自治团队，更快的决策速度，总体上通常更有效率。
I’m going to expand this a little bit and talk about a great or unique work culture in addition to a decentralized organization.
我将稍微扩展一下，除了去中心化组织之外，还要谈谈一种伟大或独特的工作文化。
We’ll then divide the categories as follows:
然后，我们将按如下方式划分类别：
To avoid: There are reports of a toxic work culture
要避免：有报道称有毒的工作文化
OK: Nothing special, just like most of the other companies
OK：没什么特别的，就像大多数其他公司一样
Unique: There is something specific to the culture that helps the business
独特性：文化中有一些特定的东西可以帮助企业
Cult-like: Some examples show a cult-like behavior that has a big impact on business outcome
邪教：一些例子显示了对业务成果有重大影响的邪教行为
A company that comes to mind that is high-performing and has a cult-like culture is Adyen. Sadly it’s always expensive.
我想到的一家高绩效且具有邪教文化的公司是 Adyen。可悲的是，它总是很贵。
Buy Cheap 买便宜的
Your entry price into an investment is the most important thing of all decisions you need to make. And price does not equal value.
您在投资中的入场价格是您需要做出的所有决定中最重要的事情。价格不等于价值。
The value of the company is the discounted value of the expected future cash flows. We could construct a simple or complex DCF. You can compare pricing in the market to its peers to get a relative cheapness indication.
公司的价值是预期未来现金流的贴现值。我们可以构造一个简单或复杂的DCF。您可以将市场上的价格与同行进行比较，以获得相对便宜的指示。
For the checklist, let us keep it simple and use the PE and PEG ratios because these are the most widely used.
对于清单，让我们保持简单并使用 PE 和 PEG 比率，因为它们是使用最广泛的。
Christophe Mayer talks about the twin-engine of 100-baggers. High EPS growth combined with PE multiple expansion.
克里斯托夫·梅耶尔（Christophe Mayer）谈到了100-baggers的双引擎。高每股收益增长与市盈率倍数扩张相结合。
When using a PE ratio, we look at the pricing in the market and it is a measure to assess relative value compared to other companies. There are two other factors to consider:
当使用市盈率时，我们会查看市场定价，这是评估与其他公司相比的相对价值的衡量标准。还有另外两个因素需要考虑：
Are you looking at trailing PE ratios or forward PE ratios?
您是在关注追踪市盈率还是远期市盈率？
Is the PE ratio low, because the market is pricing it low (for some reason) or has earnings increased and pricing not followed suit (for some reason)
市盈率是否低，是因为市场定价偏低（出于某种原因）还是收益增加而定价没有跟上（出于某种原因）
This is why we will combine the trailing PE ratio with the forward-looking PEG ratio. The PE ratio will let us take a look at what the market is pricing at this time. The PEG ratio will be defined by ourselves based on the growth we expect in the future.
这就是为什么我们将尾随市盈率与前瞻性PEG比率相结合的原因。市盈率将让我们看看此时的市场定价。PEG比率将由我们自己根据我们预期的未来增长来定义。
Based on a trailing PE ratio, here’s the thresholds:
根据追踪市盈率，以下是阈值：
We’ll define relative cheapness as the PE ratio of the company compared to the median of peer companies in the market.
我们将相对便宜定义为公司的市盈率与市场上同行公司的中位数相比。
Example: If the company has a PE of 10, and the median of a peer group is 13, then the company is 30% cheaper than the median group. Again, this on itself does not mean it is a bargain. But it’s a start.
示例：如果公司的市盈率为 10，而同行组的中位数为 13，则该公司比中位数组便宜 30%。同样，这本身并不意味着它是讨价还价的。但这只是一个开始。
Quality and Cheapness 质廉
Are quality and cheap not two opposites?
质量和便宜不是两个对立面吗？
Imagine you find a company that displays:
想象一下，您发现一家公司显示：
High Sales Growth 销售高速增长
High Gross margins 高毛利率
High EPS Growth 每股收益高增长
High Return on equity 高股本回报率
High Return on invested capital
高投资资本回报率
A great capital allocation strategy
出色的资本配置策略
Operator Owned 运营商所有
A high Long-term MOAT 长期护城河高
Then I can bet you it won’t be cheap.
那我敢打赌，它不会便宜。
Examples of companies that fit the above description:
符合上述描述的公司示例：
Copart 科帕特
Dino Polska 迪诺·波尔斯卡
But they are both expensive. Are they 100-baggers? Maybe, but you had to buy them a long time ago. They won’t be a 100-bagger from now.
但它们都很贵。他们是 100 袋装机吗？也许吧，但你很久以前就不得不买它们。从现在开始，他们不会成为 100 袋装的。
So the only way to find a quality company that is cheap is if:
因此，找到便宜的优质公司的唯一方法是：
It is underfollowed by analysts and thus unknown and mispriced by the market
分析师对它的关注不足，因此不为人知，被市场错误定价
There are short-term headwinds that have made it cheap, but there is no impact on the long-term value per share
短期不利因素使其变得便宜，但对每股的长期价值没有影响
you have such a deep understanding of a company and its market that may be you see future value drivers that the market hasn’t recognized yet (example: Nick Sleep describer the scale economies shares model before others did)
你对一家公司及其市场有如此深刻的理解，以至于你可能会看到市场尚未认识到的未来价值驱动因素（例如：Nick Sleep在其他人之前描述了规模经济股票模型）
We therefore add another threshold to the checklist: The number of analysts following the company:
因此，我们在清单中增加了另一个阈值：关注公司的分析师数量：
Now remember, if you can buy a high-quality company at a fair price, you’ll do just fine.
现在请记住，如果你能以合理的价格购买一家高质量的公司，你就会做得很好。
If you can buy a high-quality company at a cheap price, you may find a 100-bagger!
如果你能以低廉的价格买到一家高质量的公司，你可能会找到一个100袋的！
Buy Small, a long runway
买小，长跑道
Is Microsoft a great company? Yes. Can it become a 100-bagger from now on? Probably not. To find one, you’ll have to look for smaller companies, those that still have a long runway in front of them. Luckily, smaller companies also make out the majority of our possible investing universe.
Microsoft是一家伟大的公司吗？是的。从现在开始，它能成为100袋吗？可能不是。要找到一个，你必须寻找较小的公司，那些仍然有很长的跑道在他们面前的公司。幸运的是，小公司也占据了我们可能投资领域的大部分。
In the dataset used in 100-baggers, the median size was a market cap of 500 million USD. But in more recent times, even some 5 billion dollar companies could become 500 billion dollar companies. Chris confirmed this in one of his blog articles.
在 100 袋装机中使用的数据集中，中位数规模为 5 亿美元。但在最近的时代，即使是一些50亿美元的公司也可能成为5000亿美元的公司。Chris在他的一篇博客文章中证实了这一点。
You should look for smaller companies, ideally below a 1 billion dollar market cap. Here are our thresholds:
您应该寻找较小的公司，理想情况下市值低于 10 亿美元。以下是我们的阈值：
What is the business selling and in which market. How could it scale? If tomorrow the business does 10x or 100x revenue, how much market is it going to capture? Is it realistic?
销售什么业务，在哪个市场销售。它如何扩展？如果明天企业的收入是 10 倍或 100 倍，它将占领多少市场？这是现实的吗？
These are some of the questions to answer to get an idea if 100-baggerdom is possible.
这些是要回答的一些问题，以了解 100-baggerdom 是否可能。
The final 100-bagger checklist
最终的 100 个装袋机清单
Conclusion 结论
Chris mentions this is in his book, and it’s an important one. Do not dismiss the luck factor. In other words, you can buy a quality company, and you’ll do just fine but it may never become a 100-bagger. Or you could buy a company that at the time wasn’t that high quality, and became a 100-bagger anyway. Luck is a factor.
克里斯在他的书中提到这一点，而且是一本重要的书。不要忽视运气因素。换句话说，你可以买一家优质的公司，你会做得很好，但它可能永远不会成为 100 袋。或者你可以买下一家当时质量不高的公司，无论如何都要成为一家 100 袋的公司。运气是一个因素。
The real value of these insights is to buy quality as cheap as possible and let the compounding do his magic.
这些见解的真正价值在于尽可能便宜地购买质量，并让复利发挥他的魔力。
This last part may be the most difficult one because a lot of the companies saw significant drawdowns in price during their lifetime. Will you be able to steer the ship and hold on?
最后一部分可能是最困难的，因为许多公司在其生命周期中都出现了价格大幅下跌。你能驾驭这艘船并坚持下去吗？
Is there something you would add, or change to the checklist?
您是否会在清单中添加或更改某些内容？
You can find the checklist here.
您可以在此处找到清单。
May the markets be with you, always.
愿市场永远与你同在。