2024年11月

https://paulgraham.com/writes.html

I'm usually reluctant to make predictions about technology, but I feel fairly confident about this one: in a couple decades there won't be many people who can write.
我通常不愿意对技术做出预测，但我对此相当有信心：几十年后不会有很多人会写作。

One of the strangest things you learn if you're a writer is how many people have trouble writing. Doctors know how many people have a mole they're worried about; people who are good at setting up computers know how many people aren't; writers know how many people need help writing.
如果你是一名作家，你会学到的最奇怪的事情之一就是有多少人在写作方面遇到困难。医生知道有多少人有他们担心的痣；擅长设置计算机的人知道有多少人不擅长设置计算机。作家知道有多少人需要写作帮助。

The reason so many people have trouble writing is that it's fundamentally difficult. To write well you have to think clearly, and thinking clearly is hard.
很多人在写作上遇到困难的原因是它从根本上来说很困难。要想写好，你必须清晰地思考，而清晰地思考是很难的。

And yet writing pervades many jobs, and the more prestigious the job, the more writing it tends to require.
然而，写作遍及许多工作，而且工作越有声望，就越需要更多的写作。

These two powerful opposing forces, the pervasive expectation of writing and the irreducible difficulty of doing it, create enormous pressure. This is why eminent professors often turn out to have resorted to plagiarism. The most striking thing to me about these cases is the pettiness of the thefts. The stuff they steal is usually the most mundane boilerplate — the sort of thing that anyone who was even halfway decent at writing could turn out with no effort at all. Which means they're not even halfway decent at writing.
这两种强大的对立力量，对写作的普遍期望和写作的不可减少的难度，产生了巨大的压力。这就是为什么著名的教授常常诉诸抄袭。这些案件中最让我震惊的是盗窃案的规模很小。他们偷来的东西通常是最平凡的样板文件——任何一个即使是半途而废的写作者都可以毫不费力地写出来的东西。这意味着他们的写作水平连一半都不如。

Till recently there was no convenient escape valve for the pressure created by these opposing forces. You could pay someone to write for you, like JFK, or plagiarize, like MLK, but if you couldn't buy or steal words, you had to write them yourself. And as a result nearly everyone who was expected to write had to learn how.
直到最近，还没有方便的泄压阀来释放这些相反力所产生的压力。你可以花钱请人为你写作，比如肯尼迪，或者抄袭，比如马丁·路德·金，但如果你买不到或窃取文字，你就必须自己写。结果，几乎每个需要写作的人都必须学习如何写作。

Not anymore. AI has blown this world open. Almost all pressure to write has dissipated. You can have AI do it for you, both in school and at work.
不再。人工智能让这个世界变得开放。几乎所有写作的压力都消失了。无论是在学校还是在工作中，你都可以让人工智能为你做这件事。

The result will be a world divided into writes and write-nots. There will still be some people who can write. Some of us like it. But the middle ground between those who are good at writing and those who can't write at all will disappear. Instead of good writers, ok writers, and people who can't write, there will just be good writers and people who can't write.
结果将是一个分为可写和不可写的世界。会写字的人还是会有的。我们中的一些人喜欢它。但擅长写作和根本不会写作之间的中间地带将会消失。不再有好作家、好作家和不会写作的人，而是只有好作家和不会写作的人。

Is that so bad? Isn't it common for skills to disappear when technology makes them obsolete? There aren't many blacksmiths left, and it doesn't seem to be a problem.
有那么糟糕吗？当技术使技能过时时，技能就会消失，这不是很常见吗？铁匠剩下的不多了，看起来也不是什么问题。

Yes, it's bad. The reason is something I mentioned earlier: writing is thinking. In fact there's a kind of thinking that can only be done by writing. You can't make this point better than Leslie Lamport did:
是的，这很糟糕。原因就是我前面提到的：写作就是思考。其实有一种思考只能通过写作来完成。在这一点上，莱斯利·兰波特 (Leslie Lamport) 的表现再好不过了：
If you're thinking without writing, you only think you're thinking.
如果你思考而不写作，你只是认为你在思考。
So a world divided into writes and write-nots is more dangerous than it sounds. It will be a world of thinks and think-nots. I know which half I want to be in, and I bet you do too.
因此，一个分为可写和不可写的世界比听起来更危险。这将是一个充满思考和思考的世界。我知道我想加入哪一半，我打赌你也知道。

This situation is not unprecedented. In preindustrial times most people's jobs made them strong. Now if you want to be strong, you work out. So there are still strong people, but only those who choose to be.
这种情况并非史无前例。在前工业时代，大多数人的工作使他们变得强大。现在，如果你想变得坚强，就去锻炼吧。所以强者依然存在，但只有那些选择成为强者的人。

It will be the same with writing. There will still be smart people, but only those who choose to be.
写作也是如此。仍然会有聪明人，但只有那些选择成为聪明人的人。